Lens vs Como prediction: full analysis and our pick

Lens need to revive their European campaign against Como, one of the surprise packages of this Champions League. Two teams that almost never keep a clean sheet: our analysis and our pick.

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Context and what's at stake

Lens started their campaign well with a win in Prague, before losing to Sporting (0-2) and at Club Brugge (0-3). On 3 points, they are in the elimination zone and must take points at Bollaert. It is also their first European game against an Italian club since 2006.

Como, coached by Cesc Fàbregas, are Champions League debutants and impressive ones: a 4-1 win over Leipzig, a 3-2 defeat at Feyenoord, then a 4-1 win over Manchester United. On 6 points, the Italians are aiming for the top 8.

Form and momentum

Como are flying: five straight wins, including 3-1 against Fiorentina, 4-1 against Manchester United and 1-0 against Venezia on Saturday. They are 4th in Serie A with 23 points. The only weakness: no clean sheet in any of their 7 away games this season (10 goals conceded).

Lens are less consistent. Over their last five games: two UCL defeats, a derby loss at Lille (0-1, Giroud winner in the 86th minute), then wins over Troyes (3-1) and Paris FC (2-1). Lens are 9th in Ligue 1 and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 12 games this season. Yannick Cahuzac, in charge since 17 September, has won 3 of his 5 league games.

Team news and probable line-ups

Lens are without Odsonne Édouard (adductor surgery), Ismaëlo Ganiou, Abdallah Sima and Maik Nawrocki. Jhoanner Chávez and Jean-Clair Todibo are doubtful. Probable XI: Risser; Aguilar, Baidoo, Antonio; Abdulhamid, Haidara, Cuisance, Udol; Thauvin, Hazard; Ivanović.

Como are missing Moise Kean (shin), Assane Diao and Jesús Rodríguez, and Trevoh Chalobah is doubtful. Probable XI: Butez; Couto, Ramón, Kempf, Alex Valle; Perrone, Milla; Da Cunha, Nico Paz, Baturina; Douvikas.

Head-to-head

This is the first ever meeting between the two clubs, and Como's first European game against a French side. No history, then: this season's trends make the difference.

Keys to the game

The battle of the number 10s is a highlight: Florian Thauvin has created 15 chances in the Champions League, the most in the competition after three matchdays. Nico Paz has been involved in 5 of Como's 10 European goals (2 goals, 3 assists). Up front, Tasos Douvikas already has 3 UCL goals.

The goal numbers are very clear: all three of Como's European games produced at least five goals, and 9 of Lens' 12 games this season went over 2.5 goals. Como have opened the scoring in all three UCL games, while Lens have conceded first in 8 of their last 10.

One factor could help Lens: Como have had only three days' rest since their 1 November game, against five for Lens. A packed Bollaert can make the difference late on.

Our prediction

Two attacking sides, two defences that concede every time out, and Como European games that have all gone past four goals: we back over 2.5 goals in this match.

Alternative: both teams to score, which has happened in 8 of Lens' 12 games this season.

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FAQ

Sources : Top Mercato – avant-match · X-TremLimit – avant-match · Lensois.com – adversaires · Lensois.com – calendrier de Côme

This prediction is an opinion, not a guarantee. Only bet what you can afford to lose.